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THE WORLD:
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Gulf War 2 (aka World War 2.5)
A projection of the most likely outcome of a new war in the Gulf.

Tuesday 25 March 2003
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A British Warrior armored combat vehicle is seen driving through southern Iraq, March 24, 2003. A defiant President Saddam Hussein said invaders sent to topple him were trapped in Iraq after five days of war, but the U.S. commander of the invasion said his forces were closing in fast on Baghdad. Photo by Pool/Reuters




Deficit cuts key to Costa Rican economic health

Reuters

Costa Rica's robust economy could quickly unravel if the Central American nation failed to drastically reduce its fiscal deficit this year, the country's Central Bank president said on Monday.


Generous public spending by Costa Rican President Abel Pacheco, who took power in May 2002, has pushed the deficit to 5.4 percent of GDP so far in 2003, compared with 2.9 percent at the end of 2001.

The deficit, projected to reach 6 percent of gross domestic product this year without a fiscal belt tightening, could also threaten the success of a proposed $250 million bond issue in 2004, Central Bank President Francisco de Paula Gutierrez told Reuters in an interview.

International bondholders typically worry that a budget deficit of over 3 percent of GDP prompts the specter of less money for debt service.

"Historically, we've let the state spend more than we know it can. If we don't take action this year, we threaten investment and Costa Rica's long-term prosperity," said Paula Gutierrez.

While the expenditure helped the economy grow 2.8 percent in 2002, it is not sustainable, Paula Gutierrez said.

"We'll be paying more and more in interest on our debt and spending less on infrastructure and education," the Central Bank chief said. "That's not an incentive for foreign investment," he added.

A high deficit could also threaten plans to cut Costa Rica's expensive internal debt and swap it for lower-interest international bonds.

Costa Rica, best known for its rain forests and volcanoes, sold $450 million in paper on international markets in January to try to curtail its $4.2 billion domestic debt load.

Following a diversification away from coffee toward high-tech microchip assembly and textile exports, Costa Rica's economy saw growth of more than 8 percent a year in the late 1990s, tailing off to 1.1 percent growth in 2001.

DIFFICULT BUT POSSIBLE

While Paula Gutierrez recognized cutting the deficit was a challenge, he said he expected the country would meet a government deficit target of 3 percent of GDP by the end of this year, reducing the deficit to 2 percent by 2004.

"We're moving toward a consensus from all our public institutions to cut spending," Paula Gutierrez said.

Despite public protests by government workers, some road building programs will be put in private hands, while other major projects, such as a $35 million cancer research hospital, have been canceled or postponed.

The finance ministry also seeks to raise more taxes to help pay off the budget shortfall, proposing a tax reform package for 2004 that would bring in an extra $450 million, or 3 percent of GDP, to government coffers every year.

Currently, Costa Rica's tax collection base represents 13.5 percent of GDP, well below the 30 percent of industrialized nations.

With the budget cuts in place, GDP growth in 2003 is expected to come in at 2.2 percent, the Central Bank says.




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Brazilian students protest against US-led war on Iraq
Hundreds of Brazilian students threw stones on Monday at the US Consulate at this city, in protest against the US-led war on Iraq, shattering glasses and injuring a police officer.

During the demonstration, a Molotov cocktail was also hurled against the consulate building, without causing damage, witnesses said.

The military police that reinforce security around the diplomatic representation were even forced to take out their guns to face the rage of the demonstrators, but did not fire on them.

The demonstrators restrained from throwing stones against commercial establishments and cars parked on the streets. Later on, they headed for Rio Branco Avenue, the main road in downtown Rio, where they broke the windows of fast-food restaurant MacDonald's, which has been considered a US symbol.

The demonstrators dispersed after the intervention of the police agents.

 

US stocks fall on fear of prolonged war
US stocks closed lower as investors realized that the war with Iraq might not be so quick as they had expected. The Dow Jones industrials ended their eighth-straight winning sessions and dropped by more than 300 points.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 307.29 points, or 3.6 percent, to close at 8,214.68, after having gained 997 points for the last eight sessions.

The broader market indexes also moved lower. The technology heavy Nasdaq composite index fell 52.06 points, or 3.7 percent, to close at 1,369.78. The Standard & Poor's 500 index declined 31.56 points, or 3.5 percent, to end at 864.23.

On Monday, US-led forces marched toward Baghdad, meeting resistance from sandstorms and Iraqi troops. Iraq claimed to have shot down two US helicopters and captured two pilots, a day after more than 20 US soldiers were killed or taken prisoners.

Saddam Hussein, meanwhile, sought to rally Iraqi people with a televised speech, over the weekend. Iraqi television showed five captured US soldiers.

The war news pulled the market heavily down as Wall Street investors realized that the conflict could not be so fast as they had anticipated.

Altria dropped 1.45 dollars to 33.59 dollars. AMR, parent of American airlines, declined 30 cents to 2.08 dollars. Continental fell 1.17 dollars to 5.65 dollars and Delta dropped 1.73 dollars to 9.52 dollars, while Lockheed Martin advanced 1 dollars to 46.41dollars and Northrop Grumman gained 2.08 dollar to 84.43 dollars.

The NYSE composite index fell 169.36 points to 4,801.58 points, the American Stock Exchange index dropped 8.08 points to 817.45 points, and the Russell 2000 index of smaller company stocks declined 8.99 points to 367.25 points.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers 4 to 1, with 727 issues up, 2554 issues down and 144 issues unchanged. Trading volume on the NYSE came to 1.61 billion shares, compared with 2.28 billions traded Friday.

 

Australian special forces active in Iraq
Totaling 150 Australian air special forces were active behind the Iraqi lines, Australian Army Chief Lieutenant-General Peter Leahy said Tuesday.

The troops had destroyed Iraqi military camps and had gained significant intelligence about Iraqi troop movements and intentions, said Leahy, who was quoted by the Australian Associated Press as saying.

"The operations they have been conducting have provided invaluable information on enemy movements, on bases and on likely intentions," said Leahy, adding "Special forces have been active destroying enemy installations either using their own resources, or directing coalition air support for destruction mission."

Describing the Australian forces' operation as "shoot and scoot," he said, "They are generally creating havoc and uncertainty behind lines, and are constantly redeploying in their area of operations."

Leahy said the squadron of 14 F/A-18 Hornets had been engaged in new defensive and strike missions over Iraq overnight while the navy was finding and destroying mines in the port city of Umm Qasr.

 


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