UK/Argentina: Tension Over Falklands “Likely
To Increase Over The Coming Years”
BUENOS AIRES - Argentina has had to reduce
military expenditure because of the
recession but tension with the UK over the
Falkland Islands is likely to increase over
the coming years, according to a report from
Companiesandmarkets.com (*) released this
week.
“The British maintain the stance that
Falklands’ sovereignty negotiations will
only take place according to the wish of the
Islanders” and “the issue is being clouded
by complaints by the Islanders about
Argentine interference in the economy of the
Falklands”, threatening its industries,
reads the report “Argentina Defence and
Security Report 2010”.
The fact President Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner’s administration has had to reduce
military expenditure is resulting in the
cancellation of new programs and the
ditching of plans for pending upgrades of
equipment and replacement programmes for all
three forces. While the recession continues,
procurement prospects remain poor and the
military look set to suffer as a result.
In 2008, Argentine defence spending stood at
ARS7.9bn (2.53 billion US dollars), and the
report forecasts that it will reach
ARS10.5bn (2.11bn USD) by 2014. This slow
growth is in contrast to other countries in
the region (Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela),
where military procurement is on the up and
often involving procurement of Russian-made
arms and equipment.
It was reported in Military Balance that an
arms race is likely to intensify in Latin
America due to a “copycat' weapons buying
triggered by recent military action in some
countries and the reactions of their
neighbours. Yet, in Argentina the aim of the
former President Néstor Kirchner to
reorganise the military by 2010 is unlikely
to be achieved.
The economic recession has posed the
greatest risk to increasing Argentine
defence budgets, with any further
fluctuations likely to lead to domestic
unrest, including, on the civil front, an
increase in violent street demonstrations.
The Argentine government faces significant
pressure to increase aid to the farming
community, which is becoming increasingly
aggressive in its call for an elimination of
grains export taxes. This long-standing
dispute over export taxes has been a prime
factor in the recent decline in popularity
of President Cristina Kirchner. The 2009
Overseas Security Advisory Council's
Argentine Crime and Safety Report claims
violent street crime, theft, kidnappings and
other felonies are on the increase.
In general, pan-regional co-operation is
increasing, reducing tensions and rivalry
between states. New mechanisms to address
regional security problems are emerging,
including the recently-established Union of
South American Nations (UNASUR). The union
is aimed at strengthening regional
co-operation, particularly with Chile and
Venezuela, while keeping the US, Brazil and
other Latin American states onside.
Argentina's co-operation and friendship with
Venezuela is continuing partly to counter
Brazilian regional influence. Argentina
stands to gain from the new US presidency in
furthering its international influence,
having been invited to participate in a US
presidential meeting on nuclear power
generation safety in April 2010.
Tension with the UK over the Falkland
Islands continues to mar relations between
the two countries and this is likely to
increase over the coming years. The British
maintain the stance that negotiations will
only take place over the sovereignty of the
Islands according to the wish of the
Islanders. The issue is being clouded by
complaints by the Islanders about Argentine
interference in the economy of the
Falklands, threatening its limited
industries. The fishing dispute has worsened
in that Argentina has withdrawn from a
fisheries management commission and which
could mean serious damage to fish stocks.
The Argentines have also banned charter
planes travelling from Chile over Argentine
airspace to the Falklands, and have banned
hydrocarbon industry workers in Argentina
from taking up similar work on the Islands.
The region poses a latent terrorist danger,
and there are fears that groups operating
there could launch an attack similar to the
1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre in
Buenos Aires. Relations with Iran have also
continued to sour, with no end in sight for
the dispute over allegations of Iran's
complicity in the bombing.
While the overall risk of a major terrorist
attack is low, there are problems with money
laundering, fund-raising, and arms smuggling
for Islamic groups in the Tri-Border Area,
which remains the main focus of
counter-terrorist operations. The Middle
Eastern groups Hamas and Hezbollah (both
supported by Iran), have a financial network
in the Tri-Border Area which Hezbollah is
continuing to use as a staging ground for
terrorist attacks.
(*) The assessment is from
Companiesandmarkets.com which provides a
comprehensive range of global market
research reports covering 27 different
industry sectors, and focusing on major
geographic areas of the world.
|
|
|
Former President Néstor Kirchner aim to reorganise the military by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved. |
