Climate Models
Predict Dengue Epidemics
CORAL GABLES, Fla. (UPI) -- U.S. and Costa
Rican scientists say they've developed the
first climate-based computer model that can
predict dengue fever outbreaks in Costa
Rica.
An interdisciplinary team of researchers
from the University of Miami and the
University of Costa Rica said the new model
can predict dengue fever epidemics with 83
percent accuracy, up to 40 weeks in advance
of an outbreak and provide information on
the magnitude of future epidemics.
The Costa Rican model, the researchers said,
can be expanded to include the broader
region of Latin America and the Caribbean.
University of Miami Associate Professor
Douglas Fuller said an early warning system
to prevent and mitigate the spread of the
disease, which is also known as "breakbone
fever," can potentially be developed using
the model.
"Such a tool will provide sufficient time
for public health authorities to mobilize
resources to step up vector control
measures, alert at-risk populations to
impending conditions and help health
professionals plan for increased case
loads," Fuller said.
The study was reported earlier this year in
the journal Environmental Research Letters.
|
