Will Chávez face a recall?
Andrés Cańizález
Latin America Press
New electoral officials must decide whether a referendum will be held.
| Time
seems to be standing still in
Venezuela. For months, there has
been talk in political circles
of a recall referendum that
could put an early end to
President Hugo Chávez’s term
in office. The establishment of
such a mechanism has even been
held up as the main result of
months of arduous negotiation
between the government and the
opposition. Questions remain,
however, about how and when such
a vote would be held — and
especially about what would
happen afterward.
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A girl demonstrates showing Chávez´s
constitution in her hand Paolo
Moiola
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The
expectations that were awakened in May
with the signing of an agreement
between the government and the
opposition (LP, May 7, 2003) gradually
deflated as Congress failed to reach
agreement on the appointment of new
directors for the National Electoral
Council (CNE).
The Supreme Court finally stepped into the breach on Aug. 25 by naming the new electoral authorities, basing the move on an article in the 1999 Constitution. The new CNE president is Francisco Carrasquero, former rector of Rafael Baralt University in the western state of Zulia, and the vice president is Ezequiel Zamora, a lawyer who served on the council in the 1990s. The other members are historian Oscar Battaglini, Dr. Jorge Rodríguez and lawyer Sobella Mejías.
"The makeup [of the CNE] is balanced and all sectors of the country are represented, as we promised," Supreme Court President Iván Rincón said.
While important, the naming of CNE directors deemed trustworthy by all sectors is only the first step. The new officials will make their debut with a decision on the validity of signatures on petitions calling for a recall vote, that were submitted by the opposition on Aug. 20.
The certified signatures of 20 percent of the country’s 12 million registered voters are needed to call a referendum on the president. The opposition organization Súmate ("Get on Board") insists that it exceeded that minimum by 17 percent. Chávez, however, has claimed that the signatures are invalid. Analysts such as Teodoro Petkoff, director of the daily Tal Cual, and Jorge Olavarría recommend that the opposition stage a new petition drive. Democratic Action (AD), the opposition party with the greatest weight in Congress, is inclined to agree.
The signatures were gathered on Feb. 2 as the final act of a two-month general strike staged by the opposition (LP, Jan. 15, 2003). Experts have complained that there were inconsistencies in the wording of the petitions, which included irrelevant questions, and that there was no independent monitoring of the process.
"Politically speaking, the opposition would gain more by holding a new large-scale event to gather signatures. Some opposition leaders seem to want to give the government ammunition for fighting the process by insisting on using the signatures gathered in February," Petkoff said. One top Venezuelan official confirmed that the government will appeal to all "political and legal" recourses to postpone a referendum for as long as possible.
According to the new Constitution, the drafting of which was backed by Chávez early in his term, if a successful recall were held after August 2004, the vice president would fill the presidency until the original term expired in 2006. If voters opted to recall the president before August 2004, however, new presidential elections would have to be called.
Chávez came to power in February 1999, but after a series of institutional reforms, a new Constitution and new elections to confirm the legitimacy of his presidency (LP, Dec. 27, 1999 and Aug. 21, 2000), his six-year term is considered to have begun on Aug. 19, 2000. He is eligible for re-election to a second six-year term.
According to the Constitution, citizens can file a recall petition anytime after the mid-point of the president’s term, as the opposition did on Aug. 20.
Opposition spokespersons such as Oscar Lucien, of the Active Citizenship group, say the referendum should be held within three to four months, before the end of the year. Vice President José Vicente Rangel, however, has said emphatically that because of the complexity of arranging a recall, it could not realistically be held before next year.
If the new electoral officials decide the signatures hold enough validity to call a referendum, they must then decide when and how the balloting will be held.
Even more important, perhaps, is the question of what would happen afterward. What would happen if Chávez lost the referendum? According to the Constitution, new presidential elections would have to be held within 30 days.
Private pollsters, even those identified with the opposition, acknowledge that three out of 10 Venezuelans support Chávez, still a significant percentage after four and a half years in office, although it is down from the 60 percent popularity rating that the Venezuelan president enjoyed three years ago.
"If the opposition vote is fragmented and the Chávez supporters remain united, it can’t be taken for granted that Chávez, or the person he taps as a candidate if the recall were followed by new presidential elections, would be defeated," said Luis Vicente León of the Datanálisis polling firm.
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